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Lewis Anderson v Tarek Shehata (Sun 16 Feb 2020)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-5,13-11,7-11,10-12,11-8.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 18,551, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Tarek Shehata: 16,959, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Tarek Shehata.

Lewis Anderson won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 10% better than Tarek Shehata in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of 18,616 and Tarek Shehata at a level of 16,899. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +0.3% and Tarek Shehata changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +0.1% and for Tarek Shehata becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'DSMP-DSQV PSA Satellite Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 78%, Tarek Shehata: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 78%, Tarek Shehata: 84%.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 18,579, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Tarek Shehata: 16,937, level confidence: 84%.