Lewis Anderson v Tarek Shehata (Sun 16 Feb 2020)
Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-5,13-11,7-11,10-12,11-8.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
18,551, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Tarek Shehata:
16,959, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Tarek Shehata.
Lewis Anderson won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played
10% better than Tarek Shehata in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of
18,616 and Tarek Shehata at a level of
16,899. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +0.3% and Tarek Shehata changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +0.1% and for Tarek Shehata becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'DSMP-DSQV PSA Satellite Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 78%, Tarek Shehata: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 78%, Tarek Shehata: 84%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
18,579, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Tarek Shehata:
16,937, level confidence: 84%.