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Owain Taylor v Lewis Anderson (Mon 17 Feb 2020)

Match won by Owain Taylor. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-13,11-6.

Starting level for Owain Taylor: 22,807, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 18,801, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Owain Taylor to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Lewis Anderson.

Owain Taylor won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owain Taylor played 29% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owain Taylor actually played at a level of 23,530 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 18,223. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owain Taylor changes to +2.7% and Lewis Anderson changes to -2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owain Taylor becomes +1.2% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -1.3%.

Given Owain Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Owain Taylor is +0.6% and for Lewis Anderson is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owain Taylor: 90%, Lewis Anderson: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owain Taylor: 87%, Lewis Anderson: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Owain Taylor: 22,909, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 18,645, level confidence: 85%.