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Scott Handley v Ben Coleman (Tue 18 Feb 2020)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 10-12,6-11,2-11.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 18,001, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 32,529, level confidence: 58%.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Scott Handley.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 89% better than Scott Handley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of 33,257 and Scott Handley at a level of 17,607. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +1.3% and Scott Handley changes to -1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +0.5% and for Scott Handley becomes -0.7%.

Given Ben Coleman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2020' so the adjustment for Ben Coleman is 0% and for Scott Handley is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 76%, Scott Handley: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 74%, Scott Handley: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 17,902, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 32,560, level confidence: 74%.