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Luke McFarland v Lewis Anderson (Tue 25 Feb 2020)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-6,7-11,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Luke McFarland: 10,104, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 18,802, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Luke McFarland.

Lewis Anderson won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 28% better than Luke McFarland in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lewis Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,798 and 18,802 without affecting his level.

As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 13,841, his level reduction is 6.9% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 16,903 (based on typical behaviour), Luke McFarland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 10.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -5% and Luke McFarland changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -1.8% and for Luke McFarland becomes +3%.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Given Luke McFarland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is -1% and for Luke McFarland is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 86%, Luke McFarland: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 71%, Luke McFarland: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Luke McFarland: 10,280, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 18,596, level confidence: 71%.